The Indus River Runs Dry

Pakistan's Crumbling Pillars of Stability

Pakistan balances precariously on the precipice, its future obscured by gathering storms. A succession of military juntas has cultivated an atmosphere ripe for zealotry, populism, and counter-revolution, levying the polity weakened. Meddling neighbors gaze hungrily from the East and West, eager to extend their influence into the vacuum left by instability.

Most ominous is the specter of economic ruin, as cascading crises have pushed Pakistan’s finances towards the brink. Global pandemics, energy shocks, and catastrophic flooding have ravaged the economy, draining foreign reserves perilously low. This perfect storm of political fragility and economic distress has birthed a swelling exodus, with 2023 on track to witness unprecedented refugee outflows.

As the cost of living inexorably climbs, Pakistan teeters dangerously close to outright collapse. In the absence of urgently needed reforms, such a collapse could enable a nuclear-armed Taliban or ignite a tinderbox of proxy warfare between regional rivals. The country stands at a crossroads, its future balanced on a knife’s edge between renewal and ruin. The hour is late, but the opportunity for deliverance endures.

Underlying Destabilizing Factors

Imran Khan’s 3rd Arrest

Pakistan’s domestic politics have been fragile since the original deposition of the populist leader Imran Khan of the Tehreek-e-Insaf party. Khan won the premiership in 2018 on a platform analogous to most other populist leaders: end corruption, extremism, and poverty and create a ‘New Pakistan.’

On Aug 5th, police arrested Khan at his residence in Lahore after he was sentenced to three years in prison for allegedly selling state gifts. Khan was arrested twice previously, for misappropriating funds from his nonprofit trust, and the ensuing protests injured hundreds and killed dozens.

It reveals a polity riven by cronyism and instability, prone to fracture along political fault lines. An unstable and corrupt polity has a low bright line for violence, whether exercised by the state or its citizens. Such instability carries ominous parallels to Syria, where, in the crucible of economic strife, an initially peaceful protest movement rapidly descended into a multi-sided civil war that claimed countless lives.

Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP)

While Khan’s populism proved destabilizing, a more ominous force gathers strength in the form of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). This far-right Islamist movement wields vast power, evidenced by its strong electoral showing and ability to mobilize millions. After the 2018 general elections, the TLP emerged as a significant political force, receiving 2.2 million votes and becoming the fourth-largest party in Pakistan. After the death of their leader, Khadim Hussain Rizvi, in 2020, his son, Saad Hussain Rizvi, took over and maintained the momentum of the political movement.

Under Saad’s leadership, the TLP has instigated persistent violent protests against the government, calling for the expulsion of secular foreign embassies that allow for blasphemy against the Prophet Muhammad, principally France. These violent protests led to the blockade of roads and highways, burning tires and vehicles, and attacks on police stations and government buildings. After this demonstration, the group was banned under anti-terrorist laws in 2021, but after secret talks facilitated by military intervention, the ban was revoked, and Saad was released from imprisonment.

Banned and unbanned in capricious fashion, the TLP has cemented its centrality on Pakistan’s political chessboard. Its reactionary rhetoric permeates the populous Punjab region, home to 120 million - over half of Pakistan’s populace. The bloc of the TLP is already a force too powerful to disband, as evidenced by the government’s inconsistent approach to dealing with the movement. As economic malaise swells the ranks of the disaffected, the TLP stands poised to harness widespread anger for its own ends.

The resulting radicalizations and challenges to the incumbent Tehreek-e-Insaf and Muslim League can result in massive strain on both civil-government and civil-military relations, another stressor to a bending nation.

Economic Doom

Pakistan’s import-dependent economy balances perilously on the edge of ruin. Reliant on stable global supply chains and a sturdy rupee, three successive exogenous shocks have battered its fragile finances.

First was COVID-19. The global pandemic crippled global supply chains, markedly increasing shipping costs and increasing the cost to import. At the peak of the pandemic, the Pakistani rupee depreciated 7.6% against the dollar, and inflation rose by double-digit points.

Second was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Pakistan imports most of its oil and gas from Russia, and the war in Ukraine disrupted the energy supply and raised the prices of oil and gas in the international market. This had the dual effect of both A) increasing Pakistan’s oil import bill by ~25% and B) increasing the price of commodities.

Finally, catastrophic flooding incapacitated one-third of Pakistan’s population while ravaging agriculture, which comprises 18.5% of GDP. The textile sector shed 7 million jobs, and crops sustained 15% losses. Vital infrastructure crumbled, with 150 bridges and 3,500 km of roads damaged. This triggered the internal displacement of 30 million people (six times the amount displaced by the war in Ukraine).

These three external shocks are exacerbated by the sharp halt in productive investments by wealthier households. The decline of the rupee has pushed firms and families towards real estate, which does not produce jobs for the massive numbers of newly unemployed. Because of these external shocks, foreign exchange reserves are at a nine-year low, and the government cannot make productive imports like oil, gas, or fertilizers, slowing industrial operations across all of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $8 billion as of August, depleted from the $16.6 billion in reserves just a year and a half prior. This is less than two months of import cover, an underlying condition making Pakistan vulnerable to further external shocks and neutering its ability to intervene in foreign exchange markets to stabilize the rupee and curb inflation.

Insurgency

A 30% surge in terror attacks underscores Pakistan’s deepening instability. Economic immiseration and youth disaffection have created fertile ground for radicalization. With half of Pakistan’s population under 25, militant groups find no shortage of pliable recruits.

Two prominent insurgencies have capitalized on the chaos - the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatists. With the Afghan Taliban’s return to power reinvigorating religious extremism, the TTP has ratcheted up assaults to realize its own theocratic vision within Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Baloch rebels intensify their campaign for independence from perceived Punjabi domination. Widening inequality and underdevelopment in Balochistan swell the separatists’ ranks.

This escalation in attacks signals profound popular discontent as the cost of living outpaces livelihoods. Pakistan’s future stability relies on whether the state can regain legitimacy in the eyes of its disgruntled citizens. Otherwise, governing institutions risk crumbling in the face of insurrectionary fervor.

Risks

Nuclear Weapons in Pakistan

Collapse would prove catastrophic, for few countries possess a more hazardous endowment than Pakistan’s estimated stockpile of 165 nuclear warheads. Concentrated primarily in Punjab province, this arsenal could enable unmatched destruction if it falls into the hands of non-state actors.

Pakistan’s motivations for pursuing nuclear capabilities are rooted in its adversarial relationship with India. After India’s 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion,” Pakistan initiated its nuclear program, which bore fruit in 1998 with successive underground tests. Seeking strategic depth against a conventionally stronger foe, Pakistan amassed a sizable nuclear stockpile with ranges encompassing the entirety of India.

While nuclear assets furnish deterrence on the state level, their security in a context of turmoil and the proliferation of militant groups with transnational aspirations becomes increasingly questionable. Pakistan’s short-range Hatf-9 missiles could enable terrorist penetration into India. Meanwhile, with a projected reach of 3000km, the medium-range Shaheen III brings even Europe into play.

Simply put, collapse in a nuclear-armed state with porous borders and inadequate safeguards against proliferation is a nightmare scenario. With economic and political crises compounding, the international community must prioritize Pakistan’s stability before its nuclear genie slips out of the bottle into the hands of apocalyptic extremists. This danger alone should spur urgent multilateral action.

Afghani Taliban - Tehrik-i-Taliban - Balochistan

Pakistan’s economic immiseration and political chaos have created perfect conditions for radicalization. A vast cohort of disadvantaged youth, over 64% of the population, find purpose in extremist ideologies.

The TTP, in particular, has expanded its capabilities amid the turmoil, reconstituting its ability to strike cities while solidifying territorial influence along the Afghan border. With the Afghan Taliban providing strategic support and safe haven, the TTP funnels funds and recruits into its campaign to upend the Pakistani state and impose theocratic rule.

The Afghan Taliban’s consolidation of control in Afghanistan has provided an invaluable safe haven for the TTP to train, organize, and plan operations. Taliban-ruled border areas serve as staging grounds for cross-border attacks. TTP fighters find refuge, resources, and freedom to operate with impunity from Afghan soil. This symbiotic relationship is cemented by ideological alignment and deep personal ties between the groups’ memberships.

Furthermore, the Afghan Taliban allows the TTP to secure space to raise funds through illicit means like drug trafficking, extortion, and smuggling. These activities also help forge connections with transnational terror networks that can provide funding, weapons, and logistical support. The Taliban requires little coercion to tolerate the TTP’s activities, viewing their Pakistani counterparts as strategic proxies serving a shared Islamist vision.

Meanwhile, Baloch rebels chafe under perceived Punjabi exploitation, hoping to bleed Pakistan’s overstretched military through guerilla warfare. Their dream of an independent Balochistan seems increasingly attainable amid the central authority’s erosion. However, a militant Balochistan could jeopardize regional stability, leveraging its ample mineral wealth to pursue a rogue agenda.

Balochistan is endowed with abundant natural resources, including oil, gas, uranium, gold, and copper. However, the Baloch people allege that the Pakistani state and Chinese firms have monopolized the profits from exploiting these resources while neglecting Balochistan’s economic development and political rights.

If the Baloch insurgents gained control over these resources by force amid chaos in Pakistan, this would provide revenue to fund their insurgency while denying Islamabad a critical source of income. An independent Balochistan could become a rogue state, using its mineral wealth to obtain weapons while harboring terrorists aimed at destabilizing the region.

Moreover, Baloch control over natural gas reserves would allow them to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which is vital to China’s regional ambitions. This possibility aligns Baloch separatists with the strategic interests of India, which seeks to undermine Chinese investments in Pakistan. Consequently, the geopolitical ripple effects of a militant monopoly over Balochistan’s resources could be severe.

Pakistan’s future trajectory hinges on preventing economic and political collapse that would engulf its vast human potential in the swirling vortex of radicalism. Partners must urgently facilitate stability, forestalling these gathering extremist storms before they mature into unstoppable squalls. There are already portents of the coming tempest - Pakistan must begin battening down the hatches before the gale is unleashed.

China-India

Pakistan’s distress signals an opportunity for regional powers who see strategic benefit in its incapacitation. Most concerning are the nuclear-armed duo of India and China, who view Pakistan as either antagonist or satellite. While their interests partially converge in preventing state collapse, divergence remains over the end state.

For India, Pakistan’s disintegration offers the tantalizing prize of resolving the Kashmir conundrum and vanquishing its perennial foe, terrorism. India could exploit the turmoil to integrate Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, cementing its control over the disputed territory. It may also conduct surgical strikes to eliminate anti-India militant groups based in Pakistan, like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, degrading their ability to launch attacks. On a grander scale, Pakistan’s absence helps India dominate South Asia, gaining access to Central Asian markets while countering Chinese expansionism.

However, Pakistan’s collapse could also spawn unintended threats for India, whether cross-border extremist influxes or a deluge of refugees. Moreover, an assertive China could fill the vacuum, alarming India. This risk of overreach, blowback, and Chinese counter maneuver may give India pause, motivating restraint and efforts to subtly manipulate outcomes from behind the scenes.

For China, Pakistan’s turmoil jeopardizes its geostrategic investments, particularly the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which provides inland access to the Arabian Sea. To secure its economic lifeline, China may directly intervene or activate loyal proxies within Pakistan’s military-intelligence apparatus. Either pathway leads China down a slippery slope of mission creep and quagmire. However, avoiding intervention also damages China’s reputation as a regional guarantor.

This dilemma may incentivize China toward limited maneuvers to protect critical infrastructure in Balochistan while pushing for a political settlement that restores stability on its terms. Managing India’s opportunism also factors into Chinese strategy.

In this multi-layered game of shadows, miscalculations could ignite open conflict between nuclear powers. The wise course lies in cooperation to shepherd Pakistan through its time of troubles, not ruthless zero-sum maneuvers. Partners must apply both carrots and sticks to facilitate internal reconciliation. Pakistan’s crisis underscores global interdependence - harnessing it for collective security remains the sole viable path forward.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s multi-faceted crises conspire towards collapse, yet the probabilities remain uncertain. Politically motivated unrest could snowball into nationwide chaos, particularly with a precarious economy unable to absorb disruptions. The risks of extremism and nuclear insecurity amplify the geostrategic stakes.

However, collapse is not inevitable. The state retains fundamental resilience, with institutions still functional despite strain. Key variables like military unity and Great Power non-interference could forestall deterioration. Much depends on the decisions of pivotal domestic and international actors weighing self-interest against stability.

Yet the margins are slim, and shocks could overwhelm Pakistan’s rickety scaffolding. The widening gyre of radicalism is particularly ominous, portending an ungoverned vacuum filled by zealotry. And Pakistan’s treasured nuclear jewels remain hostage to fortune without urgent safeguards.

Pakistan’s fate holds global consequences. Whether descent can be arrested remains contingent - but the risks of national unraveling are rising inexorably. Fortune may yet favor rejuvenation, but the gathering storms of collapse cannot be dismissed.